Criminal thought process as a dynamic risk factor: Variable- and person-oriented approaches to recidivism prediction

The research question addressed in this study was whether an increase in criminal thought process predicted elevated risk for recidivism in a community sample of offenders. Using a 1-year change on the General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) as the independent variable, time until first arrest following a second administration of the GCT as the dependent variable, and age, criminal history, race, and ethnicity as control variables, the effect of an elevated GCT score on subsequent recidivism was tested in 35,147 male and 5,254 female federal probationers and supervised releases. Separate analyses were conducted on male and female participants. The results revealed that a rise in GCT was an incrementally valid predictor of time until first arrest in both men and women after controlling for age, criminal history, and race/ethnicity (variable-oriented analysis) and predicted the presence of a subsequent arrest during a 1-year follow-up in men regardless of initial GCT score and in women with a low initial GCT score (person-oriented analysis). Although the effect sizes were, for the most part, small, they nonetheless demonstrated both clinical and statistical significance, thereby supporting the supposition that criminal thought process, as measured by the PICTS GCT score, is a dynamic risk factor. (PsycINFO Database Record