Criminal thought process as a dynamic risk factor: Variable- and person-oriented approaches to recidivism prediction

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Forensic Psychology
• Psychological Assessment

Background:

• Recidivism risk assessment is crucial in offender management.
• Identifying dynamic risk factors can improve intervention effectiveness.
• Criminal thought processes are theorized to influence criminal behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate if changes in General Criminal Thinking (GCT) predict recidivism.
• To examine the predictive validity of GCT scores on future arrests.
• To determine if GCT is a dynamic risk factor for reoffending.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from 35,147 males and 5,254 females on federal probation/supervised release.
• Measured 1-year change in GCT scores using the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS).
• Controlled for age, criminal history, race, and ethnicity in analyses.

Main Results:

• Increased GCT scores incrementally predicted time until first arrest for both genders.
• Higher GCT predicted subsequent arrests in men (any initial score) and women (low initial score).
• Effect sizes were small but statistically and clinically significant.

Conclusions:

• Criminal thought process, as measured by GCT, is a dynamic risk factor for recidivism.
• Changes in thinking patterns are associated with reoffending.
• Findings support the utility of the PICTS GCT in risk assessment.