[Study on early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province]

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Influenza epidemics pose a significant public health challenge.
• Effective early warning systems are crucial for timely intervention and control of influenza outbreaks.
• Gansu province requires a robust method for monitoring and predicting influenza epidemics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four different early warning methods for influenza epidemics.
• To identify the most appropriate method for early detection of influenza in Gansu province.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of annual influenza-like illness incidence data from Gansu province (2014-2015).
• Comparison of simple control chart, moving percentile, exponential smoothing, and cumulative sum control chart methods.
• Evaluation of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, Jorden index, and Kappa values for each method.

Main Results:

• The 2014-2015 seasonal influenza epidemic in Gansu began in week 50 of 2014 and peaked for six weeks.
• The cumulative sum control chart method exhibited the best early warning performance.
• This method achieved a sensitivity of 66.67% and a specificity of 93.48%.

Conclusions:

• The cumulative sum control chart method is a feasible and effective tool for early warning of influenza epidemics in Gansu province.
• This method provides a reliable basis for public health authorities to implement timely control measures.