The challenge of predicting problematic chemicals using a decision analysis tool: Triclosan as a case study

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Risk Assessment
• Chemical Management

Background:

• Manufacturers require reliable methods to anticipate chemical deselection from supply chains.
• Understanding factors influencing chemical removal is crucial for supply chain stability and regulatory compliance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate three distinct methods for predicting chemical deselection.
• To assess the specific case of triclosan against these deselection criteria.

Main Methods:

• A list-based approach comparing triclosan against existing chemical restriction lists.
• Utilizing commercial chemical assessment software in two operational modes.
• Conducting a public interest evaluation to gauge societal attention and potential influence.

Main Results:

• Triclosan appeared on limited, non-influential lists.
• Chemical assessment software indicated low human and ecological toxicity for triclosan.
• Peak public interest in triclosan preceded regulatory scrutiny, suggesting public pressure impacts deselection.

Conclusions:

• Current lists and toxicity assessments may not fully predict chemical deselection.
• Public interest is a significant, potentially leading, indicator for chemical regulatory action.
• Addressing data gaps in areas like endocrine disruption is vital for future chemical trajectory prediction.