Epidemic simulation of a foot and mouth disease outbreak in Minnesota

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a primary transboundary livestock disease of international concern. Outbreaks of the disease have recently occurred in several countries that were previously FMD-free. For countries with limited direct experience of this disease, modelling is a useful tool for the study of a potential outbreak. The objectives of this study were to determine specific FMD risk parameters for Minnesota and the United States (USA) and to use these parameters to create a baseline FMD outbreak model for Minnesota. Of specific interest was to assess whether the type of herd in which the outbreak began (a dairy herd or a large-scale swine herd) influenced the basic model outcomes of outbreak size and duration, and to examine the effects of depopulation and movement controls. The mean values for disease duration, outbreak duration and number of farms and animals infected were larger in the scenario with a dairy index herd. The results of these two outbreak models demonstrated the entire spectrum of FMD outbreak types; that is, from limited, focal outbreaks to widespread, uncontrolled outbreaks. The findings from this study provide details of a baseline model that emergency preparedness planners can use to evaluate response strategies for a potential incursion of FMD into the USA. These findings are also of value for all countries as veterinary authorities develop or adjust their FMD emergency response plans.