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Intra-Weekly Variations of Influenza-Like Illness in Military Populations

Pete Riley1, Angelia A Cost2, Steven Riley1

  • 1Predictive Science Inc., 9990 Mesa Rim Road, Suite 170, San Diego, CA 92121.

Military Medicine
|April 6, 2016
PubMed

Insights

Active military populations show a weekly pattern in influenza-like illness (ILI), peaking on Mondays. This pattern is influenced by public holidays, offering insights for detrending and forecasting ILI outbreaks.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Military Medicine

Background:

  • Influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance is crucial for public health.
  • Understanding temporal patterns in ILI is essential for accurate outbreak detection.
  • Military populations present unique opportunities for studying infectious disease dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify and analyze periodic patterns in ILI incidence within active military populations.
  • To investigate the impact of public holidays on ILI temporal patterns.
  • To explore the utility of these findings for data detrending and outbreak forecasting.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of the Defense Medical Surveillance System (DMSS) data set.
  • Quantitative description of weekly and holiday-modulated ILI incidence patterns.
  • Development of methods for detrending and near-real-time ILI estimation.

Main Results:

  • A consistent weekly pattern in ILI was observed, with peak incidence on Mondays and a decline through Friday.
  • ILI patterns systematically changed in response to public holidays.
  • The study provides a quantitative description of this holiday-induced modulation.

Conclusions:

  • The identified weekly and holiday patterns in military ILI are significant.
  • These findings can be used to detrend both military and civilian health data.
  • The analysis supports the development of near-real-time ILI forecasting tools for early outbreak detection.

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