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Related Concept Videos

Decision Making01:20

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Decision-making is a fundamental cognitive process that involves evaluating alternatives and selecting among them. This process can range from simple choices, such as deciding what to wear, to complex decisions, like choosing a major in college or a career path. The complexity of the decision often dictates the approach we use, which can be broadly categorized into two types: automatic and controlled decision-making.
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The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...
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A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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Updated: Mar 23, 2026

Online Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation of Dorsomedial and Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex in Cognition Decision Making, and Cognitive Dissonance
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Guessing versus Choosing an Upcoming Task.

Thomas Kleinsorge1, Juliane Scheil1

  • 1Leibniz Research Centre for Working Environment and Human Factors Dortmund, Germany.

Frontiers in Psychology
|April 6, 2016
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Guessing upcoming tasks significantly reduces switch costs compared to choosing them. This occurs because incorrect guesses strongly update task representations, unlike denied choices in the choosing condition.

Keywords:
cognitive controlpredictionprediction errorpredictive codingtask switching

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Neuroscience

Background:

  • Task switching involves cognitive control and executive functions.
  • Predicting upcoming tasks can influence cognitive performance and reduce costs associated with switching.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the effects of guessing versus choosing an upcoming task on switch costs.
  • To investigate how the belief about task predictability influences cognitive control.

Main Methods:

  • A task-switching paradigm with four tasks was employed.
  • Two groups of participants were assigned to either a guessing or choosing condition.
  • Participants' predictions (guesses or choices) corresponded to the upcoming task in 75% of trials.

Main Results:

  • A pronounced reduction in switch costs was observed in the guessing condition for incorrect guesses.
  • This switch cost reduction was significantly less pronounced in the choosing condition for denied choices.
  • The belief about task predictability (random vs. predictable) modulated the effect of prediction errors on switch costs.

Conclusions:

  • The belief that tasks are random enhances the impact of prediction errors on task representations, leading to reduced switch costs.
  • When participants believe they have a choice, the impact of prediction errors is attenuated, suggesting a different error-resolution mechanism.