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A generating function approach to HIV transmission with dynamic contact rates.
E O Romero-Severson1, G D Meadors2, E M Volz3
1Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
|April 19, 2016
Summary
The basic reproduction number (R0) is controversial, but models show that changing sexual behavior decreases R0 and epidemic probability. This impacts public health interventions for disease elimination.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- The basic reproduction number (R0) is a key metric for disease transmission, defining epidemic thresholds.
- R0 interpretation is complex due to model dependency and stochasticity, especially in HIV transmission models assuming constant behavior.
Purpose of the Study:
- To derive expressions for R0 and epidemic probability in finite populations with periodically changing sexual behavior.
- To explore the impact of dynamic behavior on disease transmission dynamics and public health interventions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized generating functions to model transmissions from infected individuals in a susceptible population.
- Derived new expressions for R0 and epidemic probability under the assumption of periodically changing sexual behavior.
Main Results:
- The relationship between epidemic probability and R0 is not always straightforward.
- Increased rates of change in sexual behavior were found to decrease both R0 and the probability of an epidemic.
Conclusions:
- Periodic changes in sexual behavior can significantly alter disease transmission dynamics.
- Public health interventions aiming for disease elimination should consider the impact of behavioral variability on R0 and epidemic potential.
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