Short-term and long-term cardiovascular risk, metabolic syndrome and HIV in Tanzania

To compare short-term and long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and prevalence of metabolic syndrome in HIV-infected adults receiving and not receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) to HIV-negative controls.

A cross-sectional study including 151 HIV-infected, ART-naive, 150 HIV-infected on ART and 153 HIV-negative adults. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors were determined by standard investigations. The primary outcome was American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) Risk Estimator lifetime CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes were ASCVD 10-year risk, Framingham risk scores, statin indication and metabolic syndrome.

Compared with HIV-negative controls, more HIV-infected adults on ART were classified as high lifetime CVD risk (34.7% vs 17.0%, p<0.001) although 10-year risk scores were similar, a trend which was similar across multiple CVD risk models. In addition, HIV-infected adults on ART had a higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome versus HIV-negative controls (21.3% vs 7.8%, p=0.008), with two common clusters of risk factors. More than one-quarter (28.7%) of HIV-infected Tanzanian adults on ART meet criteria for statin initiation.

HIV-infected ART-treated individuals have high lifetime cardiovascular risk, and this risk seems to develop rapidly in the first 3-4 years of ART as does the development of clusters of metabolic syndrome criteria. These data identify a new subgroup of low short-term/high-lifetime risk HIV-infected individuals on ART who do not currently meet criteria for CVD risk factor modification but require further study.