Exploring spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in Portugal (1980-2014)

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Forestry
• Ecology

Background:

• Understanding wildfire spatial incidence, trends, and drivers is crucial for effective environmental and civil protection policies.
• Accurate data supports prevention strategies and resource allocation for firefighting.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the geographical incidence and temporal trends of wildfires in Portugal at the municipal level.
• To identify the primary drivers influencing fire ignition density and burnt area.

Main Methods:

• Geographical analysis of fire ignition density and burnt area distribution.
• Temporal trend analysis of wildfires since the 1980s.
• Geographically weighted regression (GWR) to identify wildfire drivers compared to simple linear regression.

Main Results:

• Wildfires are not uniformly distributed; a significant concentration of ignitions occurs in a north-western region.
• >80% of municipalities show an increasing trend in ignition density.
• While most municipalities show stable burnt areas, 35% exhibit a positive trend, and 5% a negative trend.

Conclusions:

• Physical factors (topography, land cover) and anthropogenic factors (population density, livestock) significantly impact municipal wildfire ignition and burnt area.
• GWR is more effective than linear regression for identifying localized wildfire drivers.
• Findings provide critical insights for tailored wildfire management strategies in Portugal.