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Updated: Mar 22, 2026
12:11
Computation of Atmospheric Concentrations of Molecular Clusters from ab initio Thermochemistry
Published on: April 8, 2020
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Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity.
Ivy Tan1, Trude Storelvmo2, Mark D Zelinka3
1Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA. ivy.tan@yale.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|April 29, 2016
Summary
Global climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates increase when mixed-phase clouds are accurately simulated. This is due to a weakened cloud-phase feedback linked to slower cloud glaciation in warmer climates.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Atmospheric physics
- Cloud microphysics
Background:
- Global climate models (GCMs) estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for a CO2 doubling between 2.0°C and 4.6°C.
- Clouds are a primary source of uncertainty in these ECS projections.
- Mixed-phase clouds, containing both ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets, play a critical role in climate feedbacks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of realistic mixed-phase cloud representation on ECS estimates.
- To quantify the influence of cloud-phase feedback on climate sensitivity.
Main Methods:
- Constraining GCM simulations using global satellite observations of mixed-phase clouds.
- Analyzing the relationship between cloud glaciation rates and climate sensitivity.
Main Results:
- ECS estimates increased by up to 1.3°C in simulations with satellite-constrained mixed-phase clouds.
- Higher ECS is linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback.
- A decreased cloud glaciation rate in warmer climates contributes to the weakened feedback.
Conclusions:
- Accurate representation of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds is crucial for GCMs.
- Cloud-phase feedback significantly influences ECS and requires further investigation.
- Satellite constraints improve the reliability of climate sensitivity projections.
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