Place-value understanding in number line estimation predicts future arithmetic performance

In multi-digit numbers, the value of each digit is determined by its position within the digit string. Children's understanding of this place-value structure constitutes a building block for later arithmetic skills. We investigated whether a number line estimation task can provide an assessment of place-value understanding in first grade. We hypothesized that estimating the position of two-digit numbers requires place-value understanding. Therefore, we fitted a linear function to children's estimates of two-digit numbers and considered the resulting slope as a measure of children's place-value understanding. We observed a significant correlation between this slope and children's performance in a transcoding task known to require place-value understanding. Additionally, the slope for two-digit numbers assessed at the beginning of grade 1 predicted children's arithmetic performance at the end of grade 1. These results indicate that the number line estimation task may indeed constitute a valid measure for first-graders' place-value understanding. Moreover, these findings are hard to reconcile with the view that number line estimation directly assesses a spatial representation of numbers. Instead, our results suggest that numerical processes involved in performing the task (such as place-value understanding) may drive the association between number line estimation and arithmetic performance.