High Summer Temperatures and Mortality in Estonia

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Public Health
• Climate Science

Background:

• Climate change is increasing extreme weather events like heat waves in Europe.
• High temperatures and heat waves significantly impact public health, causing increased mortality.
• Estonian-specific studies on heat-related mortality are lacking.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between high summer temperatures and mortality in Estonia.
• To analyze the time course of mortality in response to heat.
• To compare heat-related mortality in coastal and inland regions of Estonia.

Main Methods:

• Collected daily mortality and maximum temperature data for coastal and inland Estonia.
• Applied a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM).
• Investigated heat-related mortality and its temporal patterns.

Main Results:

• Mortality increased immediately with temperatures above the 75th percentile (approx. 23°C).
• The mortality increase persisted for a few days in both regions.
• Significant mortality displacement was not observed, indicating a true impact of heat.

Conclusions:

• Elevated temperatures significantly increased mortality across Estonia, in both coastal and inland areas.
• Heat-related mortality was higher in the inland region, though not statistically significant.
• Region-specific assessments are crucial for understanding and mitigating the impacts of temperature extremes on mortality.