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Prognostic Factors in Chest Pain Patients: A Quantitative Analysis of the HEART Score
Barbra E Backus1, A Jacob Six, Pieter A Doevendans
1From the *Department of Emergency Medicine, Medisch Centrum Haaglanden, The Hague, The Netherlands; †Department of Cardiology, Hofpoort hospital Woerden, Woerden, The Netherlands; ‡Department of Cardiology, University Medical Centre, Utrecht, The Netherlands; §Department of Research and Development, St Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands; and ¶Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Insights
The HEART score effectively predicts major adverse cardiac events in chest pain patients. While an adjusted HEART score offers minor improvements, the original HEART score remains clinically useful for risk stratification in emergency departments.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Emergency Medicine
- Clinical Risk Assessment
Background:
- Risk stratification for emergency department chest pain patients is crucial.
- The HEART score (History, ECG, Age, Risk Factors, Troponin) estimates major adverse cardiac event (MACE) risk.
- Current guidelines recommend risk stratification for chest pain patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predictive impact of individual HEART score components.
- To compare the performance of the original HEART score against a regression-based adjusted model.
- To validate the HEART score's components and overall performance.
Main Methods:
- Prospective data analysis of 2388 chest pain patients.
- Calculation of the original HEART score and a multivariable logistic regression-adjusted HEART score (HEART-adj).
- Assessment of calibration, discrimination (c-statistic), decision curve analysis, and net reclassification improvement.
Main Results:
- Univariate analysis confirmed the predictive order of HEART components.
- The adjusted HEART score showed slightly improved calibration and discrimination (c-statistic 0.85 vs. 0.83).
- The original HEART score demonstrated better patient classification (net reclassification improvement 14.1%) despite minor gains with HEART-adj.
Conclusions:
- Multivariable analyses support the established weights of the HEART score components.
- Minor improvements in calibration and discrimination are achievable with score adaptation.
- Both original and adjusted HEART scores are clinically valuable for daily practice in managing chest pain patients.
Objectives:
Risk stratification for chest pain patients at the emergency department is recommended in several guidelines. The history, ECG, age, risk factors, and troponin (HEART) score is based on medical literature and expert opinion to estimate the risk of a major adverse cardiac event. We aimed to assess the predictive effects of the 5 HEART components and to compare performances of the original HEART score and a model based on regression analysis.
Methods:
We analyzed prospectively collected data from 2388 patients, of whom 407 (17%) had a major adverse cardiac event within 6 weeks (acute myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass graft, significant stenosis with conservative treatment and death due to any cause).
Results:
Univariate regression analysis showed the same ordering of predictive effects as used in the HEART score. Based on multivariable logistic regression analysis, an adjusted score showed slightly better calibration and discrimination (c statistic HEART, 0.83, HEART-adj, 0.85). In comparison to HEART, HEART-adj proved in a decision curve analysis clinically useful for decision thresholds over 25%. Nevertheless, the original HEART classified patients better than HEART-adj (net reclassification improvement = 14.1%).
Conclusion:
The previously chosen weights of the 5 elements of the HEART score are supported by multivariable statistical analyses, although some improvement in calibration and discrimination is possible by adapting the score. The gain in clinical usefulness is relatively small and supports the use of either the original or adjusted HEART score in daily practice.
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