Planning Staff and Space Capacity Requirements during Wartime

Determining staff and space requirements for military medical centers can be challenging. Changing patient populations change the caseload requirements. Deployment and assignment rotations change the experience and education of clinicians and support staff, thereby changing the caseload capacity of a facility. During wartime, planning becomes increasingly more complex. What will the patient mix and caseload volume be by location? What type of clinicians will be available and when? How many beds are needed at each facility to meet caseload demand and match clinician supply? As soon as these factors are known, operations are likely to change and planning factors quickly become inaccurate. Soon, more beds or staff are needed in certain locations to meet caseload demand while other locations retain underutilized staff, waiting for additional caseload fluctuations. This type of complexity challenges the best commanders. As in so many other industries, supply and demand principles apply to military health, but very little is stable about military health capacity planning. Planning analysts build complex statistical forecasting models to predict caseload based on historical patterns. These capacity planning techniques work best in stable repeatable processes where caseload and staffing resources remain constant over a long period of time. Variability must be simplified to predict complex operations. This is counterintuitive to the majority of capacity planners who believe more data drives better answers. When the best predictor of future needs is not historical patterns, traditional capacity planning does not work. Rather, simplified estimation techniques coupled with frequent calibration adjustments to account for environmental changes will create the most accurate and most useful capacity planning and management system. The method presented in this article outlines the capacity planning approach used to actively manage hospital staff and space during Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom.