EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

Area of Science:

• Health Economics
• Pharmaceutical Policy
• Health Technology Assessment

Background:

• Healthcare payers face constant pressure to control pharmaceutical budgets.
• Horizon scanning units are crucial for forecasting pharmaceutical market changes.
• Assessing the net impact of new patented drugs versus patent expirations on national budgets is vital.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a predictive model for pharmaceutical budget impact in selected European Union (EU) member states.
• To evaluate the net effect of new patented medicines entering the market against those going off-patent.
• To incorporate population ageing and country-specific policies into pharmaceutical budget forecasting.

Main Methods:

• Selected diverse EU member states (France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, UK) for analysis.
• Developed separate models for generics/biosimilars and new drugs, considering patent cliffs and development risks.
• Conducted forecasts over a 5-year period (2012-2016) from multiple perspectives (payer, society, manufacturer) and distribution chains.

Main Results:

• All analyzed countries, except Poland, projected pharmaceutical budget reductions.
• The United Kingdom and France showed the highest expected savings, primarily driven by cardiovascular, central nervous system, and respiratory drug areas, and biosimilar entries.
• New drug entries in oncology, immunology, and inflammation contributed to increased expenditure, highlighting a complex budget dynamic.

Conclusions:

• The forecast indicated a net decrease in pharmaceutical expenditure across the studied European countries during the forecast period.
• Pharmaceutical budget outcomes are highly sensitive to policy decisions, including market access and reimbursement strategies.
• The developed model provides a framework for understanding and forecasting pharmaceutical budget dynamics influenced by market events and policy interventions.