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A half doubling dose change in bronchial hyperresponsiveness in a population represents an important difference
Mark Weatherall1, James Fingleton2, Sally Eyers1,2
1University of Otago Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
Translational Respiratory Medicine
|May 29, 2016
Summary
A small increase in bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) across the population could significantly raise asthma prevalence. A half doubling dose worsening in BHR may indicate an important public health change.
Area of Science:
- Respiratory Medicine
- Pulmonary Physiology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Asthma prevalence has risen globally, with unclear causes.
- Bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) is a key asthma indicator and risk factor.
- The population-level significance of BHR changes is undefined.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the public health impact of small changes in BHR.
- To determine a meaningful population-level threshold for BHR change.
Main Methods:
- Simulation modeling of BHR changes in an asthmatic population.
- Calculation of the effect on moderate and severe BHR prevalence.
Main Results:
- A 0.5 doubling dose increase in BHR elevates moderate and severe BHR prevalence by 30%.
- Such a change, if mirrored in asthma prevalence, has significant public health implications.
Conclusions:
- A 0.5 doubling dose worsening in population BHR may signify a critical public health concern.
- This threshold warrants consideration for asthma surveillance and intervention strategies.
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