Mechanistic species distribution modelling as a link between physiology and conservation

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Conservation Biology
• Physiology

Background:

• Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in climate change conservation planning.
• While rapid, correlative SDMs have limitations in novel environments and offer little mechanistic insight.
• Over-reliance on correlative SDMs increases the risk of conservation policy failure.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review the benefits and drawbacks of correlative and mechanistic species distribution models.
• To highlight the need for mechanistic models incorporating physiological data for climate change conservation.
• To propose an opportunity for physiologists to advance conservation physiology.

Main Methods:

• Review of current species distribution modelling approaches in climate change conservation.
• Discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of correlative versus mechanistic models.
• Identification of physiological performance metrics for mechanistic model integration.

Main Results:

• Mechanistic models, parameterized with physiological data, are more robust for predicting species distributions under novel environmental conditions.
• Mechanistic models can identify the physiological processes that limit species' ranges.
• Current data limitations for physiological performance restrict the broad application of mechanistic models.

Conclusions:

• Expanding mechanistic species distribution models with physiological data is crucial for effective climate change conservation.
• Collaboration between modelers, physiologists, and conservation practitioners is essential for developing and applying these models.
• Further research is needed to integrate demographic factors and broaden the application of mechanistic models in conservation planning.