How Much Financial Protection Do Marketplace Plans Provide in States Not Expanding Medicaid?

The Affordable Care Act's premium subsidies and cost-sharing reductions have helped to reduce out-of-pocket costs for low-income people enrolled in marketplace plans. This financial protection has been particularly important for people with incomes above 100 percent of poverty who live in states that have not expanded Medicaid. However, a key question for policymakers is how this protection compares to Medicaid. This brief analyzes a sample of silver plans offered in the largest markets in 18 states that use the federal website for marketplace enrollment and have not expanded Medicaid eligibility. It finds that marketplace enrollees at this income level in most plans analyzed are at risk of incurring premium and out-of-pocket costs that are higher than what they would pay under Medicaid. For people with significant health needs, costs are estimated to be much higher in marketplace plans than what they would be under Medicaid.