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Recent trends in marital disruption.

T C Martin1, L L Bumpass

  • 1Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison 53706.

Demography
|February 1, 1989
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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The crude divorce rate decline post-1980 is complex, influenced by marriage age shifts and the baby boom. Recent data suggest two-thirds of first marriages may end in divorce or separation.

Area of Science:

  • Sociology
  • Demography
  • Family Studies

Background:

  • The interpretation of the post-1980 crude divorce rate decline requires considering long-term trends.
  • Compositional effects, such as changes in age at marriage and the age structure from the baby boom, influence crude divorce rate measures.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the trend in divorce rates post-1980.
  • To provide more precise, exposure-specific divorce measurements using separation as a terminating event.
  • To evaluate marital stability differences across various marriage types.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the June 1985 Current Population Survey.
  • Employed exposure-specific measurements for divorce and separation.
  • Accounted for known underreporting of divorce and separation events.

Related Experiment Videos

Main Results:

  • Estimates indicate an initial decline in divorce rates followed by a subsequent recovery.
  • After adjusting for underreporting, current rates suggest approximately two-thirds of first marriages end in separation or divorce.
  • Significant differences in marital stability persist across demographic groups.

Conclusions:

  • The observed decline in the crude divorce rate is nuanced and affected by demographic shifts.
  • A substantial proportion of first marriages are at risk of dissolution.
  • First marriages exhibit different stability patterns compared to subsequent marriages.