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U.S. births and limit cycle models.

K W Wachter1, R D Lee

  • 1Graduate Group in Demography, University of California, Berkeley 94720.

Demography
|February 1, 1989
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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This study challenges findings that demographic feedback models explain U.S. birth cycles. It argues that inconsistencies in data analysis, not the models themselves, created the appearance of limit cycles in births.

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Economic history

Background:

  • Formal demographic feedback models, like Lee's (1974), explore neo-Malthusian theories of baby booms.
  • These models can imply sustained birth cycles, termed "limit cycles."
  • Recent reestimations suggested U.S. birth data exhibited such limit cycles.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To dispute the conclusion that U.S. birth data exhibit limit cycles.
  • To re-evaluate Lee's demographic feedback models and their implications for birth cycles.
  • To investigate whether feedback models can account for observed U.S. birth patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Critiquing the detrending procedures used in Frauenthal and Swick's reestimation of Lee's cohort model.
  • Analyzing Lee's alternative period labor-force feedback model using U.S. data.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Comparing model-generated cycles with observed U.S. birth data.

    • Main Results:

    • The appearance of limit cycles in U.S. births is attributed to detrending inconsistencies, not inherent model dynamics.
    • Lee's original cohort model does not support the presence of limit cycles in U.S. births.
    • Lee's period labor-force feedback model, when corrected, produces cycles of unrealistic duration.

    Conclusions:

    • The claim that U.S. birth data exhibit limit cycles due to demographic feedback is unsubstantiated.
    • Methodological inconsistencies in data analysis led to erroneous conclusions about birth cycles.
    • The capacity of existing feedback models to explain observed U.S. birth cycles remains an open question.