Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Assessment
• Scenario Planning

Background:

• The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) utilized expert-developed scenarios for physical climate and sea level rise.
• Existing scenarios from other agencies were adopted for land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions in NCA3.
• Participatory scenario planning efforts were initiated but yielded limited success.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the process and outcomes of scenario development for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3).
• To identify challenges and areas for improvement in creating and utilizing climate scenarios for national assessments.

Main Methods:

• Scenarios for physical climate and sea level rise were developed with expert input and underwent review.
• Existing scenarios from other agencies were specified for land use/cover and socioeconomic data.
• Participatory methods were explored to enhance end-user involvement in scenario planning.

Main Results:

• Scenarios for physical climate and sea level rise were successfully produced and published.
• Limited success was achieved in enhancing participatory scenario planning.
• Key challenges included scenario availability timing, guidance for use, nesting information across scales/sectors, end-user engagement, and scenario integration.

Conclusions:

• Future climate assessments necessitate earlier scenario development timelines.
• Enhanced guidance, training, flexible nesting approaches, and continuous engagement are crucial.
• Developing consistent and integrated scenarios is vital for robust national climate assessments.