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Neuroimaging Field Methods Using Functional Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) Neuroimaging to Study Global Child Development: Rural Sub-Saharan Africa

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Climate Anomalies and Birth Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Brian C Thiede¹, Sara Ronnkvist², Anna Armao³

¹The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

Climatic Change

|May 25, 2026

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Climate variability, including temperature and precipitation changes, impacts fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa. These findings highlight the need to integrate fertility changes into climate adaptation and emissions models.

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Demography
Climate Change Research

Background:

Existing research on climate change and population growth primarily examines population size's impact on greenhouse gas emissions.
The influence of climatic shifts (temperature, precipitation) and their socioeconomic consequences on population growth remains less understood, despite theoretical links.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the relationship between climatic variability and fertility patterns in sub-Saharan Africa.
To analyze how temperature and precipitation anomalies affect the probability of childbearing in the short term.

Main Methods:

Utilized birth histories from 23 sub-Saharan African countries spanning 1982-2017.
Integrated high-resolution historical climate data (temperature and precipitation records).
Performed statistical analyses to assess the association between climatic variability and fertility probability.

Main Results:

Exposure to climatic variability, specifically above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation, is linked to reduced fertility probability in the subsequent year.
The association between precipitation anomalies and birth rates demonstrated robustness, though effect magnitudes were modest.
Significant variations in temperature and precipitation effects were observed across different demographic groups and countries.

Conclusions:

Climatic variability influences fertility, suggesting that changes in birth rates are a key household adaptation strategy to environmental change.
Future models of population dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions must incorporate the feedback loop between fertility rates and climate change.