It's Raining Babies? Flood Exposures and Fertility in Bangladesh

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Demography
• Public Health

Background:

• Extensive research links climate change to migration and health.
• The impact of environmental changes, particularly floods, on human fertility remains less understood.
• Bangladesh, prone to severe floods, offers a critical case study for examining these effects.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between flood exposure and fertility in Bangladesh.
• To identify specific demographic subgroups affected differently by flood events on fertility.
• To explore potential mediating pathways, such as marriage timing and child mortality.

Main Methods:

• Linking Demographic and Health Survey birth records with satellite-derived flood data (2001-2018).
• Employing regression models to assess the impact of flood exposure on subsequent live birth probabilities.
• Analyzing data on women's first marriage and under-5 child mortality to explore mediating factors.

Main Results:

• Flood exposure demonstrated varied effects on fertility across different population segments.
• Statistically significant increases in childbearing were observed among less-educated and higher-parity women following floods.
• Conversely, childless women and those in urban areas experienced flood-related fertility declines, potentially linked to delayed marriage in urban settings.

Conclusions:

• Flood events in Bangladesh have complex and differential impacts on fertility.
• While some groups show increased childbearing, others experience declines, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.
• Marriage delays may partially explain fertility changes in urban areas, but child mortality and marriage timing do not systematically mediate flood-fertility links for the broader population.