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Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Big Microdata.

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Climate change impacts migration complexity. Precipitation deficits significantly reduce human migration, particularly for work-related moves, affecting populations differently across Asian countries.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental studies
  • Demography
  • Climate science

Background:

  • Climate change is a significant driver of human migration.
  • Existing research shows complex and varied effects of climate on migration.
  • Inconsistent methodologies hinder clear understanding of climate-migration linkages.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the impact of climate variability on interprovincial migration in six Asian countries.
  • To investigate how climate effects on migration differ across subpopulations (age, sex, education) and geographic scales.
  • To explore the relationship between climate change, economic factors, and migration decisions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized harmonized census and survey microdata from six Asian countries (n = 54,987,838).
  • Employed multinomial models to assess climate effects on internal migration (distance and type of move).
  • Analyzed climate impacts on migration across various demographic groups and national contexts.

Main Results:

  • Precipitation deficits substantially reduce out-migration across all analyzed demographic groups.
  • Climate effects on migration show significant variation by country and within countries.
  • Low precipitation reduces the likelihood of work-related migration, indicating economic mechanisms at play.

Conclusions:

  • Adverse environmental conditions, specifically precipitation deficits, can decrease human migration.
  • Policy interventions are needed to support populations affected by climate-induced migration changes, including those who are displaced or 'trapped'.
  • Findings highlight the need for standardized methodologies in climate-migration research for clearer insights.