Changes in premiums of cancelled nongroup plans under the Affordable Care Act

To examine the effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on changes in premiums for subscribers of nongrandfathered, nongroup insurance plans that were "cancelled."

Retrospective multivariate analyses.

Changes in annual premiums post ACA were evaluated across subgroups of subscriber and health plan characteristics. Data was derived from databases containing information on premiums, plan benefit, and demographics for subscribers aged 18 to 64 years within Kaiser Permanente of the Mid-Atlantic States. A linear regression model was used to examine the independent association between subscriber and health plan characteristics on the relative change in premiums.

In 2013, 4169 nongroup subscribers were enrolled in plans that were cancelled as a result of the ACA. The median pre-ACA premium was $3240 (range = $780-$39,492), which increased by a median of 21.3% (range = -77.4% to 193.6%), or $685 (range = -$27,464 to $8676), post ACA in 2014. Premiums increased more for high-deductible plans (median = 63.7%) than standard-deductible plans (median = 8.4%). Due to shifts in the age curve, premiums decreased for more than half of women aged 18 to 44 years, but increased by 35.2% for women aged 55 to 64 years. Premiums fell by 15.5% for subscribers who did not pass standard medical underwriting due to preexisting conditions.

Changes in premiums in the nongroup market post ACA, varied substantially across subgroups, primarily due to differences in the amount of coverage, changes in rating criteria, shifts in the age curve, and anticipated differences in risk selection and composition of the risk pool. Given the extent of this variation, it would be incorrect to conclude the ACA as being uniformly beneficial or detrimental to subscribers of these cancelled plans.