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Demographic noise can reverse the direction of deterministic selection.

George W A Constable1, Tim Rogers2, Alan J McKane3

  • 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; constabl@princeton.edu ctarnita@princeton.edu.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|July 25, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Demographic stochasticity can favor altruism, contrary to deterministic predictions. Larger populations gain a selective advantage through stochastic robustness, promoting cooperation and increasing carrying capacity, even with costs.

Keywords:
cooperationnonfixed population sizepublic goodsstochastic dynamicstimescale separation

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Theoretical ecology
  • Population dynamics

Background:

  • Deterministic evolutionary theory predicts altruism leads to extinction by cheaters.
  • Standard game theory models often assume fixed population sizes, missing key dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how demographic stochasticity influences the evolution of cooperation.
  • To identify conditions under which cooperation can be favored by selection.

Main Methods:

  • Analytical modeling incorporating demographic stochasticity.
  • Investigated public goods production and spatial effects.
  • Developed a general mathematical framework for stochastic selection reversal.

Main Results:

  • Demographic stochasticity can reverse selection, favoring cooperation.
  • Larger populations exhibit stochastic robustness, resisting invasion.
  • Cooperation can increase population carrying capacity and success, even with reproductive costs.
  • Spatial structure amplifies the effect, with implications for microbial populations.

Conclusions:

  • Stochasticity, not just deterministic forces, shapes evolutionary trajectories.
  • Cooperative behaviors can evolve and persist under realistic population dynamics.
  • The findings challenge traditional models and offer new insights into the evolution of social behaviors.