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Related Experiment Videos

When does making detailed predictions make predictions worse?

Theresa F Kelly1, Joseph P Simmons2

  • 1Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis.

Journal of Experimental Psychology. General
|August 10, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Making detailed event predictions can impair general outcome predictions. This study found that focusing on specifics in sports games led to poorer overall win predictions, highlighting a cognitive bias in forecasting.

Related Experiment Videos

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Understanding prediction accuracy is crucial for decision-making.
  • Prior research has explored factors influencing forecasting, but the impact of detailed prediction on general prediction accuracy remains less understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event negatively affects the accuracy of broader predictions for the same event.
  • To identify the cognitive mechanisms underlying this potential effect.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted 19 experiments involving 10,896 participants making over 400,000 predictions on 724 professional sports games.
  • Compared prediction accuracy for general outcomes (e.g., game winner) between participants who made detailed predictions and those who did not.
  • Controlled for alternative explanations such as inattention, fatigue, cognitive load, and reliance on holistic information.

Main Results:

  • Participants who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., number of hits) exhibited worse accuracy in predicting general outcomes (e.g., game winner).
  • This negative effect was not attributable to inattention, fatigue, or overthinking.
  • The findings suggest that predicting details increases the accessibility of useless or redundant information, leading to reduced weighting of genuinely predictive information.

Conclusions:

  • Detailed prediction can impair general prediction accuracy by altering information processing and weighting.
  • The study identifies a specific cognitive bias where focusing on granular details can hinder overall forecasting ability.
  • Understanding this bias can help predict which types of events are susceptible to this detrimental effect and inform strategies to improve prediction accuracy.