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Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus
Linying Wang1,2, Xing Yuan1, Zhenghui Xie3
1RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
Scientific Reports
|August 12, 2016
Summary
Flash droughts in China are increasing, particularly in humid regions. Despite a recent temperature slowdown, these extreme drought events are accelerating due to drying soil and increased evapotranspiration.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Hydrology
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Global warming hiatus post-1997/98 El Niño raises questions on terrestrial hydrological cycles.
- Flash droughts, characterized by extreme heat, low soil moisture, and high evapotranspiration (ET), have global impacts.
Purpose of the Study:
- Investigate long-term trends and variability of flash droughts in China.
- Analyze the drivers and acceleration of flash droughts during warming hiatus periods.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of long-term trends in flash drought frequency, temperature, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration (ET) over China.
- Statistical assessment of the contributions of different factors to flash drought trends.
Main Results:
- Flash droughts predominantly occur in humid/semi-humid regions of China (e.g., South and Northeast).
- Average flash drought frequency in China increased by 109% from 1979 to 2010, driven by warming, decreasing soil moisture, and increasing ET.
- Flash drought trends tripled after 1997, with accelerated drying trends in soil moisture and enhanced ET compensating for a slight temperature drop.
Conclusions:
- Flash droughts are accelerating in China, even during warming hiatus periods.
- Anthropogenic warming is projected to exacerbate future flash drought conditions in China.
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