Bird assemblage vulnerability depends on the diversity and biogeographic histories of islands

Biodiversity is widely acknowledged to influence the magnitude and stability of a large array of ecosystem properties, with biodiverse systems thought to be more functionally robust. As such, diverse systems may be safer harbors for vulnerable species, resulting in a positive association between biodiversity and the collective vulnerability of species in an assemblage, or "assemblage vulnerability." We find that, for 35 islands across Northern Melanesia, bird assemblage vulnerability and biodiversity are positively associated. This relationship is highly contingent on Pleistocene connectivity, suggesting that biogeographic history-a factor often overlooked in biodiversity and ecosystem-functioning studies-may influence contemporary ecological processes. In the face of biodiversity loss attributable to anthropogenic drivers, reduced ecosystem functioning may erode the safe harbors of vulnerable assemblages. Paradoxically, these results suggest that biodiverse systems, as more robust systems, may experience greater biodiversity loss over ecological time because they harbor more vulnerable species accumulated over evolutionary time.