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Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

Zhenyu Guo1, Yacov Y Haimes1

  • 1University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|August 31, 2016
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study presents a framework for analyzing precursors to system failures in interconnected infrastructure. It helps identify risks and uncertainties to improve decision-making for infrastructure management and policy development.

Keywords:
Infrastructureprecursor; risk analysis; systems of systems

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Area of Science:

  • Infrastructure Systems Engineering
  • Risk Management
  • Policy Analysis

Background:

  • Physical infrastructure systems are complex systems of systems (S-o-S), characterized by interconnected and interdependent subsystems.
  • Effective risk management requires tools to anticipate emergent changes and understand their impact on system stability.
  • Bridge failures can have significant socio-economic consequences, necessitating robust monitoring and decision support.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective precursor monitoring and decision support system.
  • To enable the identification and prioritization of indicators of evolving risks of system failure.
  • To evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis for informed and rational decision-making.

Main Methods:

  • Development of an integrated precursor analysis framework comprising three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation.
  • Application of the framework to a highway bridge system of systems (S-o-S) example.
  • Examination of the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios within the framework.

Main Results:

  • The framework provides a structured approach to identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating precursors to system failures.
  • Demonstration of the framework's utility using a highway bridge S-o-S, highlighting its interconnectedness and potential failure impacts.
  • Analysis of inspection and maintenance scenarios to inform risk assessment and resource allocation.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework is essential for risk analysis in infrastructure policy settings.
  • It enables policy researchers and analysts to develop more risk-informed policies for infrastructure management.
  • The framework supports efficient allocation of risk management resources and mitigation of severe consequences from system failures.