Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis

Area of Science:

• Infrastructure Systems Engineering
• Risk Management
• Policy Analysis

Background:

• Physical infrastructure systems are complex systems of systems (S-o-S), characterized by interconnected and interdependent subsystems.
• Effective risk management requires tools to anticipate emergent changes and understand their impact on system stability.
• Bridge failures can have significant socio-economic consequences, necessitating robust monitoring and decision support.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective precursor monitoring and decision support system.
• To enable the identification and prioritization of indicators of evolving risks of system failure.
• To evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis for informed and rational decision-making.

Main Methods:

• Development of an integrated precursor analysis framework comprising three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation.
• Application of the framework to a highway bridge system of systems (S-o-S) example.
• Examination of the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios within the framework.

Main Results:

• The framework provides a structured approach to identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating precursors to system failures.
• Demonstration of the framework's utility using a highway bridge S-o-S, highlighting its interconnectedness and potential failure impacts.
• Analysis of inspection and maintenance scenarios to inform risk assessment and resource allocation.

Conclusions:

• The developed framework is essential for risk analysis in infrastructure policy settings.
• It enables policy researchers and analysts to develop more risk-informed policies for infrastructure management.
• The framework supports efficient allocation of risk management resources and mitigation of severe consequences from system failures.