Structural fire risk: The case of Portugal

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Forestry
• Risk Management

Background:

• Vegetated areas in Portugal face significant structural fire risks.
• Accurate fire risk assessment is crucial for effective forest management and mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To map the structural fire risk in Portugal's vegetated areas using a deterministic approach.
• To update existing fire susceptibility models with higher resolution data and extended historical records.
• To provide a valuable tool for forest and fire managers to minimize economic and environmental consequences.

Main Methods:

• Adopted and updated the fire susceptibility map of Verde and Zêzere (2010).
• Utilized a higher resolution digital terrain model, extended burnt area perimeter dataset (1975-2013), and Corine land cover inventories.
• Estimated fire hazard based on three annual burnt area scenarios (maximum, mean, minimum).
• Calculated potential economic damage using vulnerability scores and species' monetary values.

Main Results:

• Developed a fire susceptibility map with five classes, aligning with Portuguese law.
• Confirmed the model's good performance in favourability scores and predictive values.
• Estimated the likelihood of a pixel burning between 0% and 20% under different future scenarios.
• Generated a fire risk map identifying areas prone to future fires and estimating economic damage.

Conclusions:

• The updated deterministic model effectively maps structural fire risk in Portugal.
• The fire risk map provides crucial insights for forest and fire management planning.
• The study offers a valuable tool to mitigate the economic and environmental impacts of vegetation fires.