Large-scale dark diversity estimates: new perspectives with combined methods

Large-scale biodiversity studies can be more informative if observed diversity in a study site is accompanied by dark diversity, the set of absent although ecologically suitable species. Dark diversity methodology is still being developed and a comparison of different approaches is needed. We used plant data at two different scales (European and seven large regions) and compared dark diversity estimates from two mathematical methods: species co-occurrence (SCO) and species distribution modeling (SDM). We used plant distribution data from the Atlas Florae Europaeae (50 × 50 km grid cells) and seven different European regions (10 × 10 km grid cells). Dark diversity was estimated by SCO and SDM for both datasets. We examined the relationship between the dark diversity sizes (type II regression) and the overlap in species composition (overlap coefficient). We tested the overlap probability according to the hypergeometric distribution. We combined the estimates of the two methods to determine consensus dark diversity and composite dark diversity. We tested whether dark diversity and completeness of site diversity (log ratio of observed and dark diversity) are related to various natural and anthropogenic factors differently than simple observed diversity. Both methods provided similar dark diversity sizes and distribution patterns; dark diversity is greater in southern Europe. The regression line, however, deviated from a 1:1 relationship. The species composition overlap of two methods was about 75%, which is much greater than expected by chance. Both consensus and composite dark diversity estimates showed similar distribution patterns. Both dark diversity and completeness measures exhibit relationships to natural and anthropogenic factors different than those exhibited by observed richness. In summary, dark diversity revealed new biodiversity patterns which were not evident when only observed diversity was examined. A new perspective in dark diversity studies can incorporate a combination of methods.