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Following the Dynamics of Structural Variants in Experimentally Evolved Populations
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Predicting evolutionary rescue via evolving plasticity in stochastic environments.

Jaime Ashander1, Luis-Miguel Chevin2, Marissa L Baskett3

  • 1Department of Environmental Science and Policy, UC Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA Center for Population Biology, UC Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616, USA jashander@ucdavis.edu.

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|September 23, 2016
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by amplifying mismatches, even when phenotypic plasticity evolves. Reduced environmental predictability hinders evolutionary rescue by increasing stochastic load, impacting species persistence.

Keywords:
Baldwin effectcryptic genetic variationenvironmental predictabilityenvironmental stochasticityevolutionary rescuephenotypic plasticity

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Ecology
  • Genetics

Background:

  • Phenotypic plasticity and its evolution can facilitate evolutionary rescue in novel environments.
  • Environmental stochasticity may, however, exacerbate extinction risk by increasing phenotype-environment mismatches.
  • Previous research has not fully explored the interplay between evolving plasticity, stochastic environments, and extinction risk.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how environmental stochasticity and evolving phenotypic plasticity affect extinction risk and evolutionary rescue.
  • To model the simultaneous changes in the mean and predictability of the environment.
  • To understand the interaction between stochastic demography, plasticity, and evolution.

Main Methods:

  • Integration of stochastic demography with quantitative genetic theory.
  • Development of an approximate prediction for long-term species persistence.
  • Numerical simulations to assess short- and long-term extinction risk.

Main Results:

  • Reduced environmental predictability significantly increases extinction risk.
  • Decreased predictability reduces species persistence due to increased stochastic load during rescue.
  • The interaction between evolving plasticity and environmental stochasticity is crucial for predicting evolutionary rescue outcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Environmental stochasticity poses a significant threat to species persistence, particularly when predictability decreases.
  • Evolving phenotypic plasticity does not always guarantee evolutionary rescue in stochastic environments.
  • Findings inform predictions for biological invasions, extinction events, and the evolution of pest resistance.