Latent-time estimation for late cutaneous and subcutaneous radiation reactions in a single-follow-up clinical study

In this paper, an analysis of the fractionation sensitivity and latency of subcutaneous fibrosis and telangiectasia in a clinical series is presented. The series comprised 163 breast cancer patients who, from 1978 to 1980, received postmastectomy irradiation delivered in 12 fractions, with 2 fractions per week over a period of 37 to 46 days. The total dose was specified either as a maximum absorbed dose of 51.36 Gy, or as a minimum target dose of 36.6 Gy specified at the level of the mid-axilla. From 1981 to 1982, 66 patients received a minimum target dose of 40.92 Gy in 22 fractions administered as 5 fractions per week over 29 to 35 days. Late complications were evaluated prospectively at a single follow-up after a minimum observation time of 16 months. The clinical endpoints analyzed were subcutaneous fibrosis and telangiectasia. The data were analyzed using a mixture model that incorporates both dose fractionation and latency effects. The length of time to expression of 90% of the ultimate frequency of moderate or severe complications was 3.2 years (95% confidence limits (c.l.) [2.3,3.9] years) and 4.7 years (95% c.l. [4.0,4.8] years) for fibrosis and telangiectasia respectively, while the alpha/beta ratios were 1.9 Gy (95% c.l. [0.8,3.0] Gy) and 3.7 Gy (95% c.l. [0.2,47] Gy), respectively. For subcutaneous fibrosis the time to reach a specific grade of reaction increases with the grade, thus being consistent with the clinical impression that fibrosis progresses in severity over time. If latency and censoring effects are unaccounted for, serious underestimates of the ultimate frequency of radiation complications in groups with incomplete follow-up may result.