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Forced Flowering in Mandarin Trees under Phytotron Conditions
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Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?

Bryce A Richardson1, Lindsay Chaney2, Nancy L Shaw3

  • 1USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Provo, UT, 84606, USA.

Global Change Biology
|October 15, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Phenotypic plasticity in big sagebrush allows some adaptation to rising temperatures, but genetic variation influences flowering time responses. This highlights the need to consider genetic factors in climate change vulnerability assessments for plants.

Keywords:
Artemisia tridentatacommon gardengenotype-environment interactionmixed-effects modelphotoperiodrange shifts

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Plant Science

Background:

  • Rising global temperatures are altering plant phenology, particularly flowering times.
  • The capacity of phenotypic plasticity to buffer species against projected climate change remains uncertain.
  • Understanding genetic variation in phenological traits is crucial for assessing climate change adaptation risks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the role of phenotypic plasticity and genetic variation in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) flowering time responses to climate change.
  • To evaluate the extent and variation in plasticity across different populations and environments.
  • To predict future flowering dates and identify vulnerabilities under projected climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Examined flowering phenology in 52 big sagebrush populations across three common gardens.
  • Utilized mixed-effects modeling to partition variation in flowering date into genetic and plastic components.
  • Mapped genetic variation for contemporary and future climate scenarios (2060, 2090).

Main Results:

  • Flowering date varied by 91 days, with 46% of variation attributed to plasticity and genetic variation in plasticity.
  • Photoperiod and spring onset (degree-day accumulation) explained genetic variation in flowering time.
  • Estimated plasticity could accommodate an average of ±13 days, but magnitude varied with latitude and temperature sensitivity.

Conclusions:

  • Phenotypic plasticity and genetic variation are key factors in big sagebrush's response to climate change.
  • Integrating genetic variation, plasticity, and climate niche modeling is essential for predicting plant vulnerability.
  • Future climate change may lead to significant shifts in flowering times, with varying adaptive capacity across populations.