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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources
Matthew H Holden1,2, Stephen P Ellner1,3
1Center for Applied Mathematics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 14853, USA.
Summary
Quantitative models generally outperform human judgment in managing simulated fisheries. While models are not always superior, they offer a more reliable approach to ecological population management than relying solely on experience.
Area of Science:
- Ecological modeling
- Natural resource management
- Quantitative ecology
Background:
- Quantitative approaches for natural resource management face practical implementation challenges.
- Both model-based and experience-based management strategies have inherent drawbacks and unstated assumptions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the effectiveness of human judgment versus quantitative models in managing simulated fishery populations.
- To evaluate how different model complexities and data availability affect management outcomes.
Main Methods:
- A simulated fishery population online game was used to assess management strategies.
- Human (student) decisions based on experience and judgment were compared against four types of model-based harvest decisions.
- Models included a perfect-knowledge model, an estimated-parameter model, a structurally different model, and an age-structure-ignoring model.
Main Results:
- Humans generally performed worse than models in scenarios with known or estimated parameters and structurally different models.
- In a minority of cases, models produced worse outcomes than human decisions.
- Models ignoring age structure still outperformed human judgment 66% of the time.
Conclusions:
- Quantitative models, even with imperfect information, often provide superior outcomes for ecological population management compared to human experience and judgment.
- Model assumptions and structure significantly impact management performance; ignoring crucial factors like age structure can lead to poor results.
- Further research is needed to refine models and bridge the gap between quantitative tools and practical natural resource management.
Keywords:
adaptive managementbioeconomicsconservationecological modelingexpert judgmentfisheries managementnatural resource managementoptimal harvestMore Related Videos
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