[Preliminary influence of 2015 cigarette excise tax up-regulation on cigarette retail price]

Objective: To evaluate the impact of cigarette excise tax up-regulation on the retail price of cigarettes in 2015. Methods: Nominal and real price of selected cigarette varieties were calculated with data from Tobacco Retail Price Monitoring Project, which was conducted in 10 cities of China from 2013 to 2015. The trend of the cigarette prices changing was analyzed with annual data. Results: A total of 352 varieties of cigarettes were surveyed during the three years. The nominal price of these cigarettes did not change significantly from 2013 to 2014. Compared with nominal price of 2014, the price of 286 varieties increased and the price of 10 most popular varieties increased from 0.6% to 7.4% after cigarette excise tax increased, but the actual prices had both rise and fall compared with 2013. Conclusions: Cigarette excise tax raise in 2015 had influence on the retail price of cigarettes. But the increase in retail price was very limited, if factors including inflation and purchasing power are taken into consideration. Therefore, the influence of 2015 cigarette excise tax raise on tobacco control needs further evaluation.