Primary sclerosing cholangitis: natural history, prognostic factors and survival analysis

The natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis was assessed in 174 patients; 37 were asymptomatic and 137 had symptoms related to underlying liver disease. At the time of diagnosis, the mean age was 39.9 years, 66% of the primary sclerosing cholangitis patients were male and 71% had associated inflammatory bowel disease, most commonly chronic ulcerative colitis. Long-term follow-up (mean: 6.0 years; range: 2.7 to 15.5 years) was available in all patients. During follow-up, 59 (34%) of the patients died: 55 in the symptomatic group and four in the asymptomatic group. Median survival from the time of diagnosis of primary sclerosing cholangitis at the Mayo Clinic was 11.9 years. Survival in the asymptomatic group was significantly decreased compared with that in a control population matched for age, race and sex. Multivariate analysis (Cox proportional hazards regression modeling) revealed that age, serum bilirubin concentration, blood hemoglobin concentration, presence or absence of inflammatory bowel disease and histologic stage on liver biopsy were independent predictors of high risk of dying. The development of a multivariate statistical survival model is a major step in identifying individual primary sclerosing cholangitis patients at low, moderate and high risk of dying. Such models will be useful for stratifying patients in therapeutic trials, in patient counseling and in patient selection and timing of liver transplantation.