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  • 1Edward Salsberg is director of health workforce studies at the George Washington University Health Workforce Institute in Washington, D.C., and on the faculty at the university's School of Nursing and School of Public Health. Leo Quigley is a research associate at George Washington University School of Nursing. The authors have disclosed no potential conflicts of interest, financial or otherwise.

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Summary

The physician assistant (PA) job market may tighten due to increased clinician supply. A system to track healthcare workforce supply and demand is recommended to align production with needs.

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Area of Science:

  • Healthcare workforce analysis
  • Health services research
  • Medical education policy

Background:

  • The physician assistant (PA) profession has experienced rapid growth.
  • Increased demand for health services has created numerous PA opportunities.
  • Simultaneous expansion of physician and nurse practitioner (NP) production raises concerns about clinician oversupply.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the potential impact of increasing PA supply on the job market.
  • To investigate the balance between healthcare workforce supply and demand.
  • To inform the PA community and policymakers about future workforce trends.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of PA pipeline growth in relation to healthcare demand.
  • Assessment of concurrent growth in physician and NP production.
  • Projection of future job market conditions for new PAs.

Main Results:

  • While increased PA supply aids in meeting healthcare needs, the job market for new PAs is projected to become more competitive.
  • The concurrent rise in physicians and NPs exacerbates concerns about potential oversupply of clinicians.
  • Current data suggests a tightening job market for newly trained physician assistants.

Conclusions:

  • A proactive system for monitoring healthcare workforce supply, demand, and distribution is essential.
  • Aligning the production of PAs and other clinicians with actual healthcare needs is crucial.
  • Failure to manage workforce supply may lead to a surplus of healthcare professionals, impacting the PA profession.