Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Environmental Science
• Food Security Studies

Background:

• Global phosphorus scarcity is a growing concern impacting food security.
• Systematic analyses of phosphorus supply and demand futures are limited, with low stakeholder inclusion.
• Addressing scarcity requires integrated approaches for demand reduction and recycling.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce an interactive web-based tool for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios.
• To facilitate stakeholder dialogue on technical, behavioral, and institutional changes for phosphorus management.
• To explore pathways for meeting future phosphorus demand and ensuring food security.

Main Methods:

• Development of an interactive global phosphorus scenario tool.
• Integration of demand-side (e.g., dietary changes, efficiency gains) and supply-side (e.g., waste recovery) measures.
• Presentation of four example scenarios: excreta recovery, non-food demand increase, reduced animal product consumption, and efficiency gains.

Main Results:

• The tool allows interactive manipulation of various phosphorus supply and demand measures.
• Four distinct scenarios illustrate potential futures for phosphorus management.
• Identifies priority options like improving agricultural phosphorus use efficiency and utilizing recovered fertilizers.

Conclusions:

• An integrated approach combining demand reduction and phosphorus recovery is crucial.
• The interactive tool facilitates informed stakeholder dialogue for planning sustainable phosphorus futures.
• Achieving global food security in 2040 and 2070 requires strategic phosphorus management.