Predictive Validity of an Empirical Approach for Selecting Promising Message Topics: A Randomized-Controlled Study

Area of Science:

• Behavioral Science
• Health Communication
• Social Psychology

Background:

• Message selection strategies often assume pretested belief-intention associations predict campaign effectiveness.
• This relies on a causal assumption linking belief-intention correlations to persuasive impact.

Purpose of the Study:

• To experimentally validate the causal assumption underlying message topic selection approaches.
• To compare the persuasive effectiveness of messages based on 'promising' versus 'less promising' themes.

Main Methods:

• Experimental design testing message persuasiveness.
• Mediation analyses to examine belief-intention pathways.
• Cross-sectional belief-intention associations used to identify message themes.

Main Results:

• All tested messages successfully increased population intentions.
• Messages addressing 'promising' themes influenced intentions via targeted beliefs.
• Messages addressing 'less promising' themes also persuaded by influencing nontargeted beliefs.

Conclusions:

• The causal assumption linking pretested belief-intention associations to message effectiveness requires re-evaluation.
• Effective message design may involve influencing broader belief sets, not just pre-identified targets.
• Implications for optimizing message topic selection in public health campaigns are discussed.