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Updated: Mar 11, 2026

Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment
Published on: October 28, 2022
Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming
T W Crowther1,2, K E O Todd-Brown3, C W Rowe2
1Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Droevendaalsesteeg 10, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Global warming may cause significant soil carbon loss, potentially accelerating climate change. This study quantizes potential carbon release from soils due to rising temperatures, highlighting a critical positive feedback loop.
Area of Science:
- * Earth and Environmental Science
- * Climate Science
- * Soil Science
Background:
- * Terrestrial soil stores the majority of Earth's carbon.
- * Anthropogenic warming may release soil carbon, amplifying global warming.
- * The net effect of warming on soil carbon balance is uncertain.
Purpose of the Study:
- * To analyze warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks.
- * To estimate global soil carbon sensitivity to warming.
- * To inform Earth system model projections.
Main Methods:
- * Assembled data from 49 field experiments across North America, Europe, and Asia.
- * Analyzed warming effects on soil carbon stocks.
- * Extrapolated empirical relationships to global scale.
Main Results:
- * Warming impacts on soil carbon depend on initial carbon stock size.
- * High-latitude areas show considerable soil carbon losses.
- * Global soil carbon stocks may decrease by 30–203 petagrams per degree Celsius warming.
- * A business-as-usual scenario could release 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon by 2050.
Conclusions:
- * Rising temperatures are likely to cause a net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere.
- * This represents a positive land carbon-climate feedback.
- * The findings empirically support the acceleration of climate change due to warming-induced soil carbon release.
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