Hospital influenza pandemic stockpiling needs: A computer simulation

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Operations Research
• Epidemiology
• Public Health Preparedness

Background:

• Severe influenza pandemics pose a significant threat to hospital capacity.
• Existing planning guidance often lacks integration of dynamic operational interrelationships.
• A robust methodology is needed to accurately forecast pandemic-related supply requirements.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and test a methodology for calculating hospital pandemic supply needs.
• To incorporate operational considerations into pandemic resource planning.
• To inform preparedness strategies for severe influenza events.

Main Methods:

• Upgraded a computer modeling tool for pandemic resource simulation.
• Utilized hospital-specific resource data and Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations).
• Analyzed a spectrum of scenarios to determine critical supply, pharmaceutical, and personal protective equipment needs.

Main Results:

• Identified 1,315 valid simulation iterations within defined parameters.
• Projected supply requirements by percentile for key resources during a severe pandemic.
• Demonstrated diminishing patient care benefits for excessive stockpiling.

Conclusions:

• Modest stockpiles of critical resources are essential for effective pandemic response.
• The methodology can display probabilities of supply needs across various scenarios.
• Further validation in diverse healthcare settings is recommended for the modeling tool.