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Measuring change and continuity in parity distributions
T W Pullum1, L M Tedrow, J R Herting
1Population Research Center, University of Texas, Austin 78712.
Demography
|August 1, 1989
Summary
Researchers developed methods to analyze fertility changes by parity. These techniques, including the relational logit model, help understand how childbearing patterns evolved in U.S. women from 1920-1980.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Understanding fertility trends is crucial for population studies.
- Previous methods lacked precision in attributing fertility changes to specific parity shifts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and compare procedures for allocating changes in mean fertility to specific parities.
- To apply these methods to U.S. women's cohorts to analyze historical fertility patterns.
Main Methods:
- Developed procedures using parity proportions and parity progression ratios.
- Applied the delta method for approximating changes in functions of variables.
- Utilized a relational logit model, analogous to life table survival analysis, for parity progression.
Main Results:
- Successfully allocated fertility changes to specific parities.
- The relational logit model effectively synthesized parity distributions and summarized differences.
- Demonstrated the application to U.S. white women cohorts (1920-1980).
Conclusions:
- The developed procedures provide robust methods for analyzing fertility dynamics.
- The relational logit model offers a powerful tool for demographic analysis of parity progression.
- Historical analysis reveals insights into changing childbearing behaviors over time.