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Quantum Decision Theory in Simple Risky Choices
Maroussia Favre1, Amrei Wittwer2, Hans Rudolf Heinimann3
1ETH Zürich, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.
Plos One
|December 10, 2016
Summary
Quantum decision theory (QDT) uses quantum mechanics principles to model decision-making. Group data supports QDT's "quarter law" prediction, suggesting individual characteristics may refine this law.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Science
- Decision Theory
- Quantum Mechanics Applications
Background:
- Quantum decision theory (QDT) applies Hilbert space mathematics, common in quantum mechanics, to understand decision-making processes.
- This framework effectively models uncertainty and cognitive effects relevant to choice behavior.
- QDT posits decisions result from a probability combining objective utility and subjective attraction.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the applicability of Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) to decision-making data.
- To validate the "quarter law" prediction of QDT using empirical data.
- To explore potential refinements of the quarter law for individual decision-making.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of individual and aggregated (group) decision-making data.
- Application of Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) formalism to a dataset of binary lotteries.
- Comparison of empirical results with QDT's quarter law predictions.
Main Results:
- Group-level data showed strong agreement with the quarter law predictions of QDT.
- Individual-level data suggested that the quarter law might require refinement to account for personal characteristics.
- The study provides a practical guide for applying QDT to binary lottery data.
Conclusions:
- QDT provides a robust framework for understanding decision-making, particularly at the group level.
- The quarter law is a valid predictor of average subjective effects in decision-making.
- Further research is warranted to refine QDT for individual decision-making analysis.
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