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Novel Production Protocol for Small-scale Manufacture of Probiotic Fermented Foods

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Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

Martin K van Ittersum¹, Lenny G J van Bussel², Joost Wolf²

¹Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands; martin.vanittersum@wur.nl.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|December 14, 2016

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Sub-Saharan Africa faces a critical food security challenge. Meeting future cereal demand requires more than just closing yield gaps; intensification and irrigation expansion are crucial to avoid increased imports and land expansion.

Keywords:

cereals food availability food security food self-sufficiency yield gaps

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Area of Science:

Agricultural Science
Food Security
Environmental Science

Background:

Global food demand will rise 60% by 2050, with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) experiencing a disproportionately larger increase.
SSA's population will grow 2.5-fold by 2050, tripling cereal demand, while already relying on significant imports.

Purpose of the Study:

To assess if SSA can meet future cereal demand on existing agricultural land without increased imports or environmental degradation.
To evaluate the feasibility of yield gap closure alone versus broader intensification strategies.

Main Methods:

Agronomically robust yield gap analysis conducted for 10 countries in SSA.
Utilized location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach.
Examined components of intensification including cropping intensity and irrigated area expansion.

Main Results:

Yield gap closure alone is insufficient to meet SSA's projected cereal demand on existing cropland.
Additional intensification strategies, such as increasing cropping intensity and expanding sustainable irrigation, are necessary.
Failure to intensify will lead to greater reliance on cereal imports.

Conclusions:

Meeting SSA's escalating cereal demand requires a multi-faceted intensification approach beyond simple yield gap closure.
Sustainable agricultural intensification is vital to ensure food security and mitigate environmental impacts in SSA.
Without successful intensification, SSA faces a future of substantially increased cereal imports.