Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

Area of Science:

• Agricultural economics
• Food security
• Agronomy

Background:

• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces a projected doubling of food demand by 2050, increasing reliance on imports and environmental strain from land expansion.
• Cereals, including maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, are vital, consuming 50% of cropland and 43% of dietary intake in SSA.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess recent trends in cereal self-sufficiency in SSA.
• To project future cereal self-sufficiency scenarios up to 2050.
• To identify key drivers and requirements for achieving food security through cereal production.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of detailed cereal production and consumption data for ten SSA countries (2010-2020).
• Modeling of future cereal self-sufficiency under various scenarios (intensification, area expansion, climate change).
• Estimation of required yield increases and associated inputs like nitrogen fertilizer.

Main Results:

• Cereal self-sufficiency in SSA rose from 84% to 92% between 2010 and 2020, despite population growth.
• Production increases were driven by yield improvements (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift towards higher-yielding maize.
• Future outlooks are improved due to a larger 2020 land baseline and higher maize adoption, but substantial yield increases are still needed.

Conclusions:

• Halting agricultural land expansion requires a significant increase in annual yield growth to 58 kg/ha/year.
• Achieving these yield increases necessitates substantial investments in agronomic practices, socioeconomic development, and political will.
• A threefold increase in nitrogen fertilizer application, coupled with context-specific agronomy, is estimated to be crucial for meeting future cereal demands.