Limited net-export capacity undermines the Netherlands' 'feeding the world' narrative

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Ecology
• Food Systems Analysis

Background:

• The Dutch agricultural sector faces scrutiny regarding its export focus, with debates on its environmental impact and the

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the Netherlands' net-export potential for food products using an agroecological food system model.
• To evaluate the land requirements for domestic food consumption and potential exports under various dietary scenarios.
• To challenge the economic rationale of the "feed the world" narrative by incorporating ecological perspectives.

Main Methods:

• Development and application of an agroecological food system model tailored to the Netherlands.
• Analysis of land use requirements for producing diverse food groups.
• Modeling of dietary shifts (e.g., towards plant-based diets) and their impact on land allocation.
• Inclusion of land use for ecosystem restoration and the biobased economy.

Main Results:

• Producing the current domestic food consumption would necessitate the entirety of the Netherlands' available agricultural land.
• Even with a transition to plant-based diets, the capacity for food exports remains significantly constrained.
• Land availability for exports is further limited when accounting for ecosystem strengthening and biobased economy initiatives.

Conclusions:

• The economic narrative of the Netherlands' agricultural sector exporting to "feed the world" is ecologically unsustainable.
• An agroecological perspective is crucial for redefining the role of regions in the global food supply.
• The model provides a framework applicable to other regions for assessing their food system's ecological and export potential.