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Updated: Mar 10, 2026
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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Urban pluvial flood prediction: a case study evaluating radar rainfall nowcasts and numerical weather prediction
Søren Thorndahl1, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen1, David Getreuer Jensen2
1Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Thomas Manns Vej 23, Aalborg Ø 9200, Denmark
Summary
Real-time urban flood prediction is possible using high-resolution radar rainfall data. However, accurate flood forecasting beyond a 30-minute leadtime remains a challenge for climate adaptation.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Hydrology
- Urban planning
Background:
- Urban flooding, caused by intense rainfall and overwhelmed drainage systems, poses significant risks to cities.
- Accurate simulation of flood events is crucial for future climate preparedness and real-time management.
- The potential for real-time urban flood prediction using integrated models is largely unexplored.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the effectiveness of different data inputs for simulating urban floods.
- To compare the predictive performance of various data sources in an integrated flood and drainage model.
- To assess the feasibility of real-time flood mapping and prediction in urban environments.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an integrated flood and drainage systems model.
- Input data included radar observations (varying resolution), radar nowcasts (0-2h leadtime), and numerical weather models (up to 24h leadtime).
- Tested the system on Lystrup, Denmark, a town experiencing floods in 2012 and 2014.
Main Results:
- Generated detailed, high-resolution flood maps in real-time using radar rainfall data.
- Demonstrated that real-time flood mapping is achievable with current technology.
- Identified limitations in forecast accuracy for leadtimes exceeding approximately 30 minutes.
Conclusions:
- High-resolution radar rainfall data enables effective real-time urban flood mapping.
- Current forecasting models show limited predictive capability for floods beyond short leadtimes.
- Further research is needed to improve long-range flood prediction for enhanced climate adaptation strategies.
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