Observational Study to Assess and Predict Serious Adverse Events after Major Surgery

Many patients suffer from postoperative serious adverse events (SAEs). Here we sought to determine the incidence of SAEs, assess the accuracy of currently used scoring systems in predicting postoperative SAEs, and determine whether a combination of scoring systems would better predict postoperative SAEs. We prospectively evaluated patients who underwent major surgery. We calculated 4 scores: American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA-PS) score, the Charlson Score, the POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity) score, and the Surgical Apgar Score (SAS). We assessed the occurrence of SAEs. We assessed the association between each score and SAEs. We combined these scoring systems to find the best combination to predict the occurrence of SAEs. Among 284 patients, 43 suffered SAEs. All scoring systems could predict SAEs. However, their predictive power was not high (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUROC] 0.6-0.7). A combination of the ASA-PS score and the SAS was the most predictive of postoperative SAEs (AUROC 0.714). The incidence of postoperative SAEs was 15.1 . The combination of the ASA-PS score and the SAS may be a useful tool for predicting postoperative serious adverse events after major surgery.